Commentary: Rubio's Speech Arrives a Year Too Late – Trust Has Been Eroded

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Commentary: Rubio's Speech Arrives a Year Too Late – Trust Has Been Eroded

The standing ovation for a speech that warned against the "climate cult," "uncontrolled mass immigration," and the "forces of civilizational decay" might initially seem unsettling. Marco Rubio, the American Secretary of State, delivered remarks at the Munich Security Conference that, just a few years ago, would have been met with protest rather than applause. However, Rubio's own observation upon his departure, "The old world is no longer here," captures a profound shift in the geopolitical landscape and transatlantic relations.

This sentiment resonates deeply in Europe. When representatives of the US government speak, European capitals now often anticipate the worst. The level of anxiety is such that even threats of war are not entirely discounted, a situation starkly illustrated during the dispute over Greenland. This palpable sense of apprehension helps explain the palpable relief with which Rubio's messages were received in Munich. It suggests a European public weary of perceived instability and unpredictability from its primary ally.

Rubio's address effectively translated the right-wing populist ideology of the MAGA movement into a foreign policy strategy. Indeed, several key terms and concepts he employed originate from far-right discourse. Despite these elements, his appearance in Munich signaled a potential opportunity for a new transatlantic arrangement. This is largely because Rubio articulated a diagnosis that has gained significant traction across the Atlantic: the belief in the "end of history" and the inevitable triumph of liberal democracy, a cornerstone of post-Cold War Western thought, was not only naive but potentially dangerous.

This acknowledgment of flawed assumptions is now a point of consensus, even within Europe. When Rubio highlights the risks associated with economic dependencies on authoritarian regimes, he finds receptive ears in Berlin, Brussels, Paris, and London. European capitals are increasingly grappling with their own vulnerabilities, whether it's reliance on Russian energy, technological dependence on China, or supply chain disruptions. Rubio's emphasis on strategic autonomy and de-risking from autocratic powers aligns with a growing sentiment within European foreign policy circles.

However, the core issue is not the accuracy of Rubio's diagnosis but the timing and the lingering mistrust. His speech, reflecting a more realist and national-interest-driven foreign policy approach from the US, arrives perhaps a year too late for many. The erosion of trust between the US and Europe has been a gradual process, exacerbated significantly during a previous administration that strained traditional alliances. Even with current efforts to mend fences, the scars remain deep.

The applause in Munich, therefore, might represent less a full embrace of past alliances and more a pragmatic acknowledgment of a changed world order. It suggests a European willingness to explore new common ground with the US, even if the methods and underlying ideologies differ. The key question is whether this potential for a "new transatlantic arrangement" can overcome the deep-seated skepticism.

Rubio's warnings about economic entanglement with authoritarian states are particularly pertinent. Europe's painful realization of its energy dependence on Russia following the invasion of Ukraine serves as a stark reminder. Similarly, concerns about China's growing economic and technological influence are prompting a reassessment of European strategies. Rubio's message, therefore, could be interpreted as a call for a comprehensive review of partnerships and economic policies, encouraging a more resilient and diversified approach.

Yet, the fundamental question remains: Is the United States, particularly under an administration influenced by the MAGA ideology, genuinely prepared to forge a balanced partnership? The "America First" undercurrent, even if officially downplayed, persists. Will Washington engage as an equal partner, or will it seek to impose its vision? The success of any "new transatlantic arrangement" hinges on this delicate balance and the willingness of both sides to bridge the gap of mistrust. Rubio's speech may have opened a door, but the path forward requires more than just rhetoric; it demands consistent action and a rebuilding of faith.

In essence, Marco Rubio's address in Munich could mark a potential turning point, but it arrives at a moment when years of eroded trust make its impact uncertain. The diagnosis of geopolitical and economic risks is sound, but it is hardly novel. The crucial test lies ahead: whether actions will follow words, and whether the fractured trust can be genuinely repaired to forge a stable, cooperative future.

Ekhbary.com