Middle East - Ekhbary News Agency
The ceasefire between Iran and the United States in the Middle East, much like its predecessors in the region, is born provisional and fragile. The atrocious attacks by Israel against Lebanon and Hezbollah, coupled with Hezbollah's retaliatory actions aimed at claiming some form of victory after a series of painful failures, pose a significant risk to its sustainability. Furthermore, Iran's persistent and firm control over the Strait of Hormuz remains a critical factor.
The upcoming negotiations in Pakistan will be pivotal, determining whether the fragile truce can be solidified or shattered. It is imperative for the primary actors – Iran, the US, and Israel – to recognize that while they might achieve Pyrrhic victories, the unbearable human cost in Lebanon and Iran necessitates de-escalation. A resumption of hostilities among these three parties would only exacerbate their already precarious situations. The erratic foreign policy of the current US administration, in particular, transforms any forecast into a macabre game of Russian roulette.
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Undeniably, Israel and the US have succeeded in militarily weakening the Ayatollah regime, its nuclear program, ballistic capabilities, and naval and air forces. However, this weakening may prove temporary, as Iran could soon recover its strength. Both nations have utilized the conflict as a live-fire testing ground for their technologies and weaponry, potentially boosting future arms exports and lucrative contracts. The US has also benefited from increased oil and gas sales, mirroring trends seen during the Ukraine conflict and sanctions against Russia. Israel, revealed recently to be the war's instigator, having misled the US, has weakened the Iranian regime and seemingly maintained its impunity to continue territorial expansion, as seen previously in Gaza, Syria, and the occupied West Bank. It continues to strike Hezbollah, pushing it away from its northern border, and has re-established a security buffer zone in Lebanon, a concession relinquished in 2000.
