U.S. and Israeli Strikes Ignite Uncertainty Over Iran's Nuclear Stockpiles

International - Ekhbary News Agency

U.S. and Israeli Strikes Ignite Uncertainty Over Iran's Nuclear Stockpiles

Heightened tensions in the Middle East have culminated in coordinated U.S. and Israeli military strikes against Iran this past weekend, primarily targeting its ambitious nuclear program. This fresh escalation in the conflict leaves pressing questions about the fate of Iran's partly enriched uranium stockpiles, a matter that has been at the very heart of the confrontation. Nuclear non-proliferation experts contend that these military actions, following warnings of an imminent Iranian threat, have exacerbated, rather than resolved, the uncertainty surrounding Iran's nuclear material.

In a statement released recently, prominent nuclear non-proliferation experts Daryl Kimball, Thomas Countryman, and Kelsey Davenport of the Arms Control Association in Washington, D.C., voiced grave concerns. They stated, “Without effective monitoring, the whereabouts and security of Iran's nuclear material will now become even more uncertain.” The experts added that this conflict is “not justifiable on nonproliferation grounds,” pointing to prior reports of progress toward a deal aimed at curbing Iran’s nuclear program before the hostilities commenced.

Hours before U.S. bombs struck Tehran last Friday, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) released a report indicating that Iran had not permitted inspections at any of its four declared uranium enrichment facilities since American and Israeli airstrikes on three such sites, then known to be operational, were carried out in June 2025. Uranium, specifically the isotope uranium 235, needs to be concentrated, or enriched, to serve as either nuclear reactor fuel or material for nuclear weapons. The IAEA had estimated that Iran possessed 441 kilograms of 60 percent enriched uranium—enough for 10 nuclear weapons if the material were enriched further—before the military action in June 2025.

However, how much of these stockpiles remains after the most recent airstrikes is unclear. Nuclear safety expert Edwin Lyman of the Union of Concerned Scientists notes that U.S. and Iranian negotiations ahead of last Saturday’s strikes reportedly included the status of the stockpile. That, Lyman says, “would presume that it was still under Iran’s control.” Ian Stewart of the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey observes that Iran’s enrichment program was set back in the June 2025 airstrikes, and the country’s leaders did not seem keen to rapidly rebuild it, perhaps due to fears of further conflict. Stewart warns, “Iran now cannot quickly acquire nuclear weapons, but the risk is that an extremist could take charge and press ahead with the program,” adding that “any attempt to recover that material or further process it, absent a diplomatic agreement and inspector access, would become an urgent issue requiring an even fuller intervention.”

In January, satellite imagery of the Isfahan nuclear enrichment facility suggested that Iran was possibly recovering uranium stocks from the bombed site. The U.S. and Israel reportedly struck Isfahan again this past weekend. In a statement on Monday, however, IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi said that “we have no indication” that any of Iran’s nuclear installations have been hit. Grossi affirmed, “So far, no elevation of radiation levels above the usual background levels has been detected in countries bordering Iran.”

Even though it’s not fully enriched to weapons grade, Iran’s uranium stockpile affords a capability to build “several” nuclear explosive devices right now that would have “significant” yields, Lyman says. It may also be possible to deliver crude bombs by covert means. Nevertheless, Lyman adds, “the potential cost to Iran of taking such a drastic step may well outweigh any benefits, given the unpredictability of how the U.S. and other nations might respond.” This evolving situation underscores the urgent need for a diplomatic resolution and renewed monitoring efforts to ensure regional and global nuclear security.

Ekhbary News Agency