China threatens to 'fight back' over Taiwan leader's US visit, but has more to lose

Taiwan - Ekhbary News Agency

China has promised to 'resolutely fight back' against Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen's anticipated meeting with US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy in California this week. The meeting has sparked concerns of a repeat of the pressure campaign China launched last year when then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taipei. At that time, Beijing encircled the island democracy with unprecedented military drills, firing missiles into surrounding waters and sending warplanes across the Taiwan Strait's median line. China also cut off communication with the United States on various issues as retaliation for what it viewed as a violation of its sovereignty.

New Developments and Escalation Fears

This time, Beijing has already threatened to "resolutely fight back" if the Tsai-McCarthy meeting proceeds. It also criticized Washington for allowing Tsai to transit through the US, warning of "serious" confrontation between the two powers. A defiant Tsai pledged not to let "external pressure" stop Taiwan from connecting with the world and like-minded democracies. However, analysts suggest that the optics of the meeting, taking place in California rather than Taiwan, and its timing—during a particularly thorny period in China's foreign relations and ahead of Taiwan's presidential election—may lead Beijing to tread more carefully or at least avoid further escalation. Experts believe this places the burden on China not to overreact, as any excessive response would further alienate it from the global community. Nevertheless, Beijing will undoubtedly be closely monitoring Tsai's movements as it calibrates its response and decides on the extent of military might to display during her meeting with an American lawmaker on US soil.