EU Hopes for Orban's Defeat, But Fears Little Will Change

Hungary - Ekhbary News Agency

Brussels and most EU capitals are keenly awaiting the results of Hungary's upcoming elections, with many hoping for the defeat of Viktor Orban. His absence from European Council meetings would be a significant relief, potentially streamlining processes like the €90 billion credit package for Ukraine and severing the direct link to Moscow that the current Hungarian government represents. The European Commission has previously highlighted alarming possibilities of a member state's government coordinating with Russia, acting against EU security interests.

Diplomatic sources express a widespread hope for improvement, anticipating progress on the rule of law and a less obstructive stance on Ukraine. There's an expectation that a new government could dismantle the blockages perceived by many as deliberate obstruction or even blackmail. However, a dual caution prevails in Brussels. Firstly, a victory for Péter Magyar is not expected to bring about an immediate, wholesale change. Secondly, despite poll predictions, there's a lingering fear of an unfavorable outcome, prompting contingency planning should Orban remain in power.

The prospect of a two-thirds parliamentary majority, crucial for fundamental legal reforms, is a key point of consideration. While some polls suggest Magyar could approach this threshold, EU officials remain reserved. After nearly 16 years of Fidesz rule, reversing established reforms will be challenging, akin to the political appointments seen in Poland. Furthermore, Hungary's historically less pro-European stance adds another layer of complexity to the situation, tempering expectations for a swift transformation regardless of the election's outcome.