Iran Conflict Could Cost Trump Elections, Spark Impeachment Fears

United States - Ekhbary News Agency

Iran Conflict Could Cost Trump Elections, Spark Impeachment Fears

In a significant departure from his previous campaign promises, U.S. President Donald Trump appears to be facing a perilous political future with the outbreak of military conflict with Iran. Trump had pledged during his 2024 presidential campaign to end wars and disengage from foreign conflicts. However, the recent escalation in the Middle East, announced by Trump on social media with statements such as "Bombs will be dropped all over the place," is causing concern among analysts and observers regarding its implications for the domestic political landscape, particularly with the midterm elections approaching.

Many analysts suggest that Trump's current focus on foreign policy, specifically the conflict with Iran, may come at the expense of addressing pressing domestic issues. This strategic shift places the legislative elections, which often see losses for the incumbent party's president, in jeopardy for Trump. The greatest fear lies in losing control of Congress, which would mean facing a more combative and hostile opposition, potentially opening the door to impeachment proceedings.

Reports indicate that Trump himself may have expressed concerns about facing impeachment to his close allies. House Speaker Mike Johnson, a Republican, has emphasized the gravity of the electoral situation, stating: "If we lose the elections, it would mean the end of Trump's presidency in practice." This statement reflects deep anxiety within the Republican Party about Trump's ability to retain voter support amidst current developments.

Notably, this military escalation contradicts the rhetoric Trump adopted while seeking a return to Washington in 2024. At that time, he strongly criticized foreign interventions, aligning with the "MAGA" movement's slogan emphasizing the priority of American interests. However, recent polls indicate that a segment of this supportive base has begun to strongly oppose the initiation of war in the Middle East, posing a new challenge for Trump.

Among the prominent critics of the war is Tucker Carlson, a former Fox News anchor and an ally of Trump. Carlson advised the President against engaging in this conflict, according to The New York Times. He described the war on social media as "unjust" and "wrong," expressing regret over American casualties, which number at least six military personnel since the attacks began. This stance from an influential figure within the conservative movement reflects growing divisions over the Trump administration's foreign policy.

Polls conducted by various media outlets confirm that American public opinion, in general, opposes the initiation of this conflict. A CNN poll, conducted by SSRS between February 28 and March 1, revealed that 59% of Americans are against the start of the conflict. This comes at a time when Trump's popularity was already declining before the war broke out. The Economist magazine notes that the President's approval rating currently stands at 58%, a slight decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous week.

In this context, Professor Carlos Poggio, a specialist in political science and U.S. policy, believes that the political impact of the war heavily depends on its duration. He states: "The longer this war lasts, the worse the political consequences for Trump tend to be." Professor Jonathan Hanson from the University of Michigan agrees that it will take time to fully assess the war's effects but emphasizes that Trump has taken a risky action. Hanson adds: "Recent polls show that a solid majority of Americans do not agree with the attacks, and history suggests that these numbers are only likely to grow over time."

Professor Jordan Tama, specializing in foreign policy and global security at American University, suggests that the success of the U.S. operation in Venezuela, which led to the capture of dictator Nicolás Maduro, might have given the President overconfidence, leading him to believe he could overthrow the Iranian regime at minimal cost. Tama observes: "Historically, there are many instances where leaders become overly confident due to past successes and believe the next time will be the same. However, the conditions differ in each country."

In addition to the lack of American public support, another issue is the lack of clarity regarding the war's objectives, which shift with every statement from the President or his administration. The government has spoken of various goals, including eliminating Iran's nuclear program, destroying missiles, and combating Iran-backed militias. The duration of the war also remains unknown. Trump previously stated it might last "four to five weeks," but also indicated that the U.S. has the capacity to continue "much beyond that." On Friday (6), he asserted that the confrontations would only end with Iran's "unconditional surrender."

Poggio describes the Republican president as "non-ideological." He explains: "He has some convictions, but there are few areas where he is truly consistent. In foreign or economic policy, many contradictions emerge." Hanson believes that the lack of transparency and explanation to the public "does not offer much hope that [the administration] has reflected on its long-term consequences or what to do next." He adds: "[Trump] was elected because a segment of undecided voters was dissatisfied with rising prices during the post-pandemic recovery period, not because they wanted more involvement in foreign conflicts."

Beyond the war's unpopularity, the President is showing signs of attempting to interfere in the elections. Poggio warns: "Trump's bet for November is not so much about convincing public opinion as it is about creating confusion. He might try to declare a state of emergency, talk about fraud, and create obstacles to voting."

Trump has never abandoned his claim of fraud in the 2020 election against Joe Biden. Even in the 2024 election, where he won against Kamala Harris, he claims fraud occurred in states where he did not prevail. Based on these allegations, which have never been substantiated with evidence, Trump has spoken of "nationalizing elections" and is pushing for the passage of the "Save America Act," which he claims would ensure fair elections. However, critics warn that this law could hinder millions of Americans from voting, as it would require documents like a passport or birth certificate for voter registration. Many citizens do not possess these documents, and obtaining them can be bureaucratic and costly.

"I, as president, will not sign any more bills until this is passed," Trump stated this Sunday (8), referring to the Save America Act, while spending the weekend at his Florida golf club. This hardline stance places the Trump administration in a challenging position, as the repercussions of the war in Iran intertwine with domestic concerns about the future of American democracy.

Ekhbary News Agency