Libyan Roadmap Faces Significant Challenges Amid Political Divisions

Ekhbary News Agency | 2024-05-12

Political developments are accelerating in Libya following the announcement of a "roadmap" by the heads of the main councils—Aguila Saleh, Mohamed al-Menfi, and Mohamed Takala. This plan aims to conclude the preparatory phase and hold simultaneous presidential and parliamentary elections before next February. This ambitious timeline, it seems, has sparked widespread skepticism among politicians and observers, who deem it "unrealistic" given the persistent institutional divide.

Alternative Initiatives Intensify Complexity

Days after the roadmap's unveiling, the General Command of the "Libyan National Army" declared its support for a US initiative proposed by presidential advisor Massad Boulos, which seeks to restructure the executive authority. Approximately 47 lawmakers subsequently endorsed this alternative plan, a move interpreted as a direct challenge to Parliament Speaker Aguila Saleh's position. Saleh al-Makhzoum, former Vice President of the National Congress, believes these developments have "further deepened doubts about the possibility of holding elections by the deadline set by the three presidencies' roadmap."

Legislative and Security Hurdles Impede Progress

Political analyst Faisal Abu al-Raiqa clarified that the success of any electoral process hinges on its transformation into a "package of legislative, security, and technical guarantees" acceptable to all active forces on the ground. He stressed that any roadmap failing to consider the "National Army's" stance would remain incomplete. Abu al-Raiqa warned that the absence of clear understandings regarding weapons neutralization could transform elections from a solution into a new source of tension. Al-Sharif Abdullah, director of the Libyan Center for Security Studies, added that the current phase's sensitivity stems from the power struggle among these forces, potentially prompting any marginalized party to "detonate the electoral process." These developments underscore the deep divisions plaguing the Libyan scene, making any clear path towards stability fraught with difficulties.

Conversely, Musa Faraj, Second Deputy Speaker of the High Council of State, defended the tripartite roadmap. He asserted that the consensus among the three presidencies emerged from extensive consultations aimed at ending the division and establishing unified, fully legitimate institutions. Such deep-seated disagreements indicate that the path toward free and fair elections remains long and arduous.