Europe Reassesses Nuclear Deterrence Amid Russian Aggression and US Security Doubts

MUNICH, Germany - Ekhbary News Agency

Europe Reassesses Nuclear Deterrence Amid Russian Aggression and US Security Doubts

A critical debate is gaining pace across Europe regarding the continent's nuclear future, spurred by a worrying confluence of escalating Russian aggression and growing doubts about the steadfastness of US security commitments. This geopolitical shift has compelled European leaders to profoundly reassess their defense strategies, breaking long-held taboos surrounding discussions of independent nuclear capabilities. The recent Munich Security Conference served as a central platform for these intense deliberations, underscoring Europe's increasing urgency to assume greater responsibility for its own security in an volatile world.

The era of post-Cold War 'strategic complacency' has definitively ended. Russia's actions in Ukraine, backed by its nuclear threats, coupled with former US President Donald Trump’s past disdainful comments about NATO and his transactional approach to foreign relations, have shaken European allies' trust. The very notion of Europe 'outsourcing' its nuclear deterrence to the United States is being directly challenged, prompting a re-evaluation of a new security reality that demands a more autonomous and integrated approach.

Currently, France and Britain remain the only two European countries possessing atomic weapons, with their combined arsenals numbering in the hundreds, dwarfed by the thousands held by the US and Russia. Nevertheless, these limited capabilities are now at the heart of a broader discussion about how to bolster European deterrence. Several prominent leaders have weighed in on these discussions, offering nuanced perspectives on the best path forward.

German opposition leader Friedrich Merz revealed that he was holding “confidential talks” with the French president concerning European nuclear deterrence. This is particularly significant given Germany’s status as a non-nuclear state, signaling a substantial shift in its strategic thinking and a growing acceptance of discussions around nuclear issues. Berlin's engagement in such talks underscores the gravity of the moment and the recognition of a need for fresh defensive solutions.

For his part, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer affirmed that the UK’s nuclear deterrent already protected fellow NATO members, stressing his commitment to “enhancing our nuclear cooperation with France.” Starmer emphasized that “any adversary must know that in a crisis they could be confronted by our combined strength” alongside France, signaling a potential avenue for strengthened bilateral cooperation as part of a broader European deterrent.

However, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte insisted that “nobody” was considering fully replacing the American nuclear umbrella, which has shielded Europe’s NATO countries for decades. While welcoming any discussion to make collective nuclear deterrence in Europe stronger, Rutte underscored that the US umbrella remains “the ultimate guarantor,” and any European initiatives should be “in addition” to, rather than a replacement for, American protection.

Meanwhile, US Under Secretary of Defense Elbridge Colby affirmed that the US “has made clear the US extended nuclear deterrent continues to apply here” in Europe. He expressed US “receptivity to a greater European contribution to... the NATO deterrent,” but cautioned that conversations need to be “very sober” and “deliberate” due to concerns about nuclear proliferation and instability.

These developments have shattered old taboos. Discussion of nuclear armament had long been viewed as politically sensitive in many European countries. However, Russian aggression and worries about US commitment have forced the issue into the mainstream of European politics. Many European officials are convinced that Moscow’s territorial ambitions will not be confined to Ukraine, and that other European countries—including even NATO members—could face some sort of attack.

The Munich Security Conference report laid out five nuclear options for Europe, while cautioning that there was “no low-cost or risk-free way out of Europe’s nuclear predicament.” These options included: continuing to rely on American deterrence; strengthening the role of British and French nuclear weapons in a European deterrent; jointly developing European nuclear weapons; increasing the number of European countries with their own nuclear arsenals; or expanding European conventional military power to present a more intimidating non-nuclear deterrent. The report deemed sticking with the status quo and relying on America’s unmatched military might as remaining “the most credible and feasible option” in the short term.

Bolstering European nuclear capabilities presents significant challenges, including hefty costs and tricky questions about who holds final authority to launch warheads. Finnish Defence Minister Antti Hakkanen welcomed bigger European investments in France or the UK’s nuclear deterrence, but quickly added that “to compensate US nuclear deterrence, that’s not realistic at this point.” Nevertheless, experts welcomed the increasingly serious political debate, with Heloise Fayet of the French Institute of International Relations stating that “That’s very positive, but now we need action.”

French President Emmanuel Macron, who has previously raised the possibility of extending France’s nuclear umbrella across Europe, is scheduled to deliver a major speech on French nuclear doctrine at the end of February. Macron indicated in Munich that he was considering a doctrine that could include “special cooperation, joint exercises, and shared security interests with certain key countries,” further cementing France’s central role in shaping Europe’s deterrence future.

Ekhbary News Agency