Lebanon's Impossible Mission: Could US and Israeli Pressure to Disarm Hezbollah Spark Civil War?

Lebanon - Ekhbary News Agency

Lebanon's Impossible Mission: Could US and Israeli Pressure to Disarm Hezbollah Spark Civil War?

Lebanon finds itself ensnared in a perilous predicament, a nation increasingly subject to complex regional power dynamics that transcend its own capacity for self-determination. Amidst this volatile climate, a deeply unsettling question looms: could mounting U.S. and Israeli pressure to disarm Hezbollah push the country towards the precipice, potentially igniting a devastating internal conflict? Salah Hijazi, Deputy Head of the Politics Desk at the Francophone Lebanese daily L'Orient-Le Jour, articulates the gravity of Lebanon's situation, warning that the nation is trapped in a dangerous stalemate. The conflict, he observes, is no longer governed by Lebanese calculations alone but has become intrinsically linked to a wider regional confrontation involving Israel, Iran, and Hezbollah.

Hijazi's analysis suggests that Israel's objectives extend beyond the mere military weakening of Hezbollah. He posits that Israel appears intent on exerting extreme pressure on the Lebanese population itself, deliberately expanding the 'geography of fear, displacement, and political fracture.' This strategy, which seems designed to foster an environment of uncertainty and chaos, carries profound implications for Lebanon's fragile socio-political fabric. Israel's approach, as interpreted by Hijazi, aims to reshape the reality within Lebanon, creating a new landscape where Hezbollah cannot maintain its previous levels of military and political strength, while simultaneously exhausting and fragmenting the Lebanese society.

The issue of Hezbollah's disarmament is not a novel one; it has been a persistent subject of political and security debates for many years. However, the recent escalation in the region, coinciding with the Gaza war and its ripple effects, has thrust this issue back into the international and regional spotlight. The United States, a traditional ally of Israel, seeks to enhance regional stability by curbing the influence of Iran and its proxies, including Hezbollah. Israel views Hezbollah's substantial arsenal, which surpasses the capabilities of the Lebanese army, as an existential threat to its security.

Yet, these external pressures confront a deeply complex Lebanese reality. Hezbollah is far more than just an armed faction; it is a significant political and social force with a broad base of support within Lebanon, forming an integral part of the country's political landscape. Any attempt to enforce disarmament forcefully, or even under severe duress, risks encountering fierce resistance, not only from Hezbollah itself but potentially resonating with large segments of the Lebanese population who perceive the party as a bulwark or a resistance force against external threats. This potential division threatens to reawaken the internal conflicts that have historically plagued Lebanon.

The widening 'geography of fear' that Hijazi describes points towards a potential Israeli strategy of increasing pressure on Lebanon as a whole, not just on Hezbollah. This could involve airstrikes or military operations targeting infrastructure or other sites, leading to mass displacement and significant human and economic losses. Such a scenario evokes memories of past wars that resulted in widespread destruction and exacerbated human suffering, aiming to create popular and political pressure within Lebanon on the government to take action against Hezbollah.

Lebanon's challenge is, in essence, an 'impossible mission.' How can a country grappling with a crippling economic crisis, deep political divisions, and devastated infrastructure contend with escalating external pressures aimed at fundamentally altering its primary security force? Quick fixes or coercive measures appear improbable and could yield precisely the opposite of the intended results. Any effective strategy must acknowledge the intricate nature of the Lebanese and regional landscape, striving for sustainable solutions that ensure security and stability for all.

International and regional calls for restraint and the pursuit of diplomatic solutions are crucial at this juncture. The international community, particularly the United States, must recognize that Lebanon's stability hinges on addressing the root causes of conflict, not merely pressuring one party. Engaging all relevant stakeholders in constructive dialogue and working to strengthen Lebanon's legitimate state institutions may be the only viable path to averting a complete collapse and sidestepping the specter of civil war.

Ekhbary News Agency