'Doomsday Clock' Ticks Closer as US-Russia New START Deal Nears Expiration

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'Doomsday Clock' Ticks Closer as US-Russia New START Deal Nears Expiration

The world stands at a precarious juncture as the New START treaty, the sole remaining major arms control agreement between the United States and Russia, approaches its expiration. This critical pact, designed to limit the nuclear arsenals of the two superpowers, is set to conclude, potentially ushering in an era of unchecked nuclear proliferation and escalating global insecurity.

The New START treaty, formally known as the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, represents the culmination of decades of diplomatic efforts aimed at managing the existential threat posed by nuclear weapons. Signed in 2010 by Presidents Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev, it caps the number of deployed strategic nuclear warheads at 1,550 for each nation and limits deployed and stored strategic launchers – including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and heavy bombers – to 800. Crucially, the treaty includes robust verification mechanisms, such as on-site inspections and data exchanges, which foster transparency and reduce the risk of miscalculation.

The legacy of arms control between Washington and Moscow stretches back to the Cold War era, with foundational agreements like the Strategic Arms Limitation Talks (SALT-I) in 1972 and START I, which entered into force in 1994 and expired in 2009. Although START II, agreed upon in 1993, never became effective due to a deterioration in relations, the underlying commitment to nuclear disarmament persisted, leading to the negotiation of New START.

However, the current geopolitical climate presents unprecedented challenges. The treaty, originally set to expire in February 2021, was extended for five years by Presidents Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin, pushing the deadline to February 2026. Yet, in 2023, Russia announced it was suspending its participation in the treaty's inspection provisions, citing U.S. support for Ukraine. While Russia stated it would continue to adhere to the numerical limits, this suspension, coupled with the broader deterioration of U.S.-Russia relations following Moscow's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, casts a long shadow over the treaty's future.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov has warned that the treaty's expiration would be "very bad for global security," expressing concerns about an unchecked nuclear arms race. The absence of New START would dismantle a vital framework for strategic stability, predictability, and transparency. This could foster an environment ripe for renewed arms competition, where the world's two largest nuclear powers operate without agreed-upon ceilings on their strategic arsenals, increasing the potential for dangerous misjudgments.

Efforts to avert this outcome have been fraught with difficulty. In September 2025, President Putin proposed that Russia would unilaterally observe the treaty's terms for an additional year to facilitate renegotiations. Then-U.S. President Donald Trump described the offer as "a good idea" but remained non-committal. Later, in January 2026, Trump's stance appeared to shift, suggesting that if the treaty expires, "it expires," and expressing confidence that "we'll just do a better agreement."

A key element of Trump's perspective appears to be the inclusion of China, now the world's fastest-growing nuclear power, in any future arms control framework. He had previously signaled this intention by withdrawing the U.S. from other arms control agreements and advocating for China's participation. Beijing, however, currently possesses an estimated 600 nuclear warheads and shows no inclination to limit its arsenal, arguing its stockpile is significantly smaller than those of the U.S. and Russia. A 2023 congressional report highlighted the emerging challenge for the U.S. in deterring not one, but two nuclear peer competitors.

The rise of China as a major nuclear power fundamentally alters the strategic landscape that New START was designed to address. The treaty was conceived in a bipolar world, and China's increasing military and economic might necessitates a re-evaluation of global nuclear dynamics.

Furthermore, Russia has reportedly developed and deployed advanced nuclear-capable systems, such as the hypersonic Oreshnik ballistic missile and the nuclear-armed Poseidon drone, which fall outside the scope of New START. Concurrently, proposals like Trump's "Golden Dome" space-based missile defense system have been interpreted by some as potentially undermining the core principle of nuclear deterrence: mutually assured destruction.

The implications of New START's potential expiration extend beyond the U.S. and Russia. European leaders are particularly anxious, especially given signals from Trump suggesting that the U.S. nuclear umbrella over Europe might become less reliable. This has spurred discussions within Europe about strengthening its own nuclear defense capabilities, potentially through joint efforts involving France and the United Kingdom extending their nuclear protection to allies like Germany. However, significant hurdles remain, including the complex issue of nuclear command and control and Russia's insistence on including British and French nuclear forces in any future treaty negotiations.

Former President Barack Obama urged the U.S. Congress to act to preserve the treaty, warning that its expiration would "pointlessly wipe out decades of diplomacy and could trigger a new arms race that would make the world less safe." Dmitry Medvedev, now Deputy Chairman of Russia's Security Council, echoed these sentiments, stating that the treaty's end "should alarm everyone" and that the absence of alternative arrangements would accelerate the "Doomsday Clock."

As the February 2026 deadline looms, the world watches with bated breath. The potential collapse of the New START treaty signifies more than just the end of an agreement; it marks a potential return to an era of strategic uncertainty and heightened nuclear risk, where the specter of a global arms race looms larger than ever before.

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