Elon Musk's Shifting Space Ambitions: Moon or Mars First? A Reality Check on Colonization

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Elon Musk's Shifting Space Ambitions: Moon or Mars First? A Reality Check on Colonization

The perennial debate within space exploration circles—whether humanity's inaugural extraterrestrial settlement should grace the Moon or the red plains of Mars—has taken a new turn with a significant announcement from SpaceX founder Elon Musk. Once a staunch advocate for Mars, famously dismissing lunar missions as a 'distraction' as recently as last year, Musk has now declared a strategic pivot. SpaceX, he revealed, is shifting its primary focus to establishing a 'self-growing city on the Moon,' a feat he believes achievable in under a decade, while projecting a 20-plus year timeline for Mars colonization.

This bold declaration naturally prompts scrutiny regarding the feasibility of such accelerated timelines, particularly given the monumental scientific and logistical challenges inherent in becoming a multi-planetary species. Illuminating these complexities is Scott Solomon, an evolutionary biologist at Rice University and author of the new book, 'Becoming Martian.' Solomon argues that our current understanding of what life would truly entail on another world is riddled with substantial gaps, suggesting Musk's vision may be far more challenging than anticipated.

Despite 65 years of human spaceflight and extensive research into its health effects, opportunities to study the long-term physiological impacts of the space environment remain remarkably scarce. A landmark study, detailed in the experiences of NASA astronaut Scott Kelly during his 340-day mission aboard the International Space Station in 2015-16, provides crucial insights. Kelly, who penned the foreword to Solomon's book, acknowledges that 'long-term spaceflight takes a toll, physically and psychologically.' A paramount concern is space radiation. While Kelly experienced minor chromosomal mutations, permanent settlers on the Moon or Mars would face significantly higher and more dangerous levels of exposure, necessitating robust countermeasures.

Extraterrestrial city planners are exploring solutions such as constructing habitats shielded by thick layers of regolith or utilizing natural lava tubes. Solomon draws a historical parallel to ancient underground cities like Derinkuyu in modern Turkey, where thousands once resided. However, he critically notes that these ancient inhabitants could freely emerge to the surface—a luxury potentially fraught with peril for lunar or Martian settlers. "I don’t really want to go to Mars if I’ve got to be underground all the time," Solomon quips, emphasizing the psychological toll of perpetual confinement and the lost opportunity for surface exploration.

Beyond immediate habitat design, the prospect of terraforming Mars—modifying its environment to be more Earthlike—is also addressed in Solomon's work. His conclusion is sobering: it would be an 'uphill battle, one that would require continual maintenance,' suggesting that any such grand atmospheric engineering project would be an ongoing, resource-intensive endeavor rather than a one-time fix.

The provision of sustenance presents another formidable challenge. While the Moon and Mars are both characterized by extreme dryness and frigid temperatures, both are believed to harbor sufficient reserves of water ice to sustain settlements. However, self-sufficiency will be paramount. Settlers would likely need to cultivate their own crops, moving away from Earth-reliant supply chains, and potentially forgo bringing livestock. Solomon's recommendation to exclude mammals and birds stems from two practical considerations: these animals would compete with settlers for scarce resources, making a vegan diet a potentially more practical choice for early Martian communities. Furthermore, animals pose a public health risk, as a significant majority of human infectious diseases have zoonotic origins. By leaving terrestrial animals behind, settlers could significantly minimize the emergence of novel pathogens in their new homes.

Human settlers will not be alone; trillions of gut microbes, vital for human health, will accompany them. These microbiomes might even be genetically engineered for optimal performance in the unique space environment, evolving alongside their human hosts. "We know that those microbes evolve in just the same ways that any of us will evolve when we leave Earth," Solomon observes, hinting at complex co-evolutionary dynamics.

Solomon's book also delves into the profound ways living in space could alter the human species itself. Future extraterrestrial inhabitants might evolve enhanced tolerance to space radiation. Researchers are already exploring genetic engineering techniques, such as incorporating genes from tardigrades—microscopic, resilient creatures known for their extreme hardiness and ability to survive in space—into human cells to boost DNA repair and radiation resistance. Early successes in cell cultures suggest tantalizing possibilities for biological adaptation.

Bone density poses another critical long-term concern. Astronauts consistently experience bone mass loss in microgravity. Settlers adapting to the reduced gravity of the Moon or Mars could develop thinner, weaker bones than their Earth-bound ancestors. This issue escalates dramatically for subsequent generations. Solomon warns that by the time a woman reaches child-bearing age, her bones could be substantially weaker, rendering childbirth a significantly riskier prospect. He speculates that caesarean sections might become the safest, or even default, method of delivery on Mars, carrying profound implications for the genetic and cultural trajectories of future alien cities.

Ekhbary News Agency