John Bolton Declares 'Peak Trump' Has Passed, Warns of Ukraine and NATO Perils

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John Bolton Declares 'Peak Trump' Has Passed, Warns of Ukraine and NATO Perils

John Bolton, a veteran of Republican administrations dating back to Ronald Reagan and former National Security Adviser to Donald Trump, has offered a stark assessment of the current political landscape, declaring that the United States has unequivocally "passed peak Trump." In a comprehensive interview, Bolton provided a scathing critique of Trump's foreign policy aspirations, particularly concerning Ukraine and NATO, while also reflecting on the internal dynamics of the Republican Party and the challenges facing global security.

At 77, Bolton's career spans decades of Republican foreign policy, making his insights particularly resonant. His 17-month tenure under Trump was marked by significant policy disagreements, culminating in his departure. More recently, Bolton has been under scrutiny, facing an ongoing investigation into the alleged mishandling of classified documents—a situation he attributes to political retribution, initiated by Trump's administration in 2020 in an attempt to block his memoir's publication.

The Illusion of Peace: Ukraine, Trump, and European Concessions

Bolton was unequivocal in his dismissal of President Trump's stated desire for a swift peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, particularly the ambition to secure an agreement by Christmas. He characterized such deadlines as mere "Trump deadlines," lacking strategic depth and serving primarily as efforts to generate political momentum. Bolton expressed deep concern over what he views as significant concessions already made by Ukraine and its European allies, deeming them a grave error. He argued that any deal forged under these conditions risks failing to adequately restrain Russia, potentially paving the way for future aggression, or "invasion number three," within a few years.

The former adviser highlighted a critical disconnect, suggesting that Trump, along with his special envoy Steve Wittkoff and Jared Kushner, fundamentally misunderstands the strategic implications. Their primary motivation, Bolton contended, appears to be securing a deal—any deal—in time for the January 31st deadline for Nobel Peace Prize nominations, rather than focusing on the substantive terms necessary for lasting security. This transactional approach, Bolton implied, leaves Ukraine vulnerable and undermines long-term stability.

Further elaborating on the dangers, Bolton specifically addressed the idea of Ukraine holding elections in the new year and accepting a ceasefire line along the existing front. While the latter might be a "recognition of reality," he firmly rejected the notion of Ukraine relinquishing NATO membership in exchange for perceived "strong security guarantees." He underscored Trump's historical unreliability regarding NATO's Article 5, which mandates collective defense, questioning why any nation would trust him for security guarantees outside the alliance framework. Such a proposition, Bolton warned, is an "illusion of security," particularly given the unlikelihood of American troops being stationed in Ukraine post-agreement, which would otherwise serve as a crucial tripwire for U.S. involvement.

Russia's Strategic Gains and Putin's Manipulation

Bolton critically analyzed the implications of a ceasefire, noting that if Russia were to retain control over 20 percent of Ukrainian territory, it is highly improbable they would ever withdraw. He believes Ukrainian President Zelenskyy and most Europeans grasp this reality, but Trump, in Bolton's view, neither understands nor cares about it. Bolton has long maintained that a ceasefire line along the current battlefield would predominantly benefit Russia, granting President Putin invaluable time to rebuild his economy, reconstitute his military, and refurbish his Black Sea fleet, which has suffered significant losses.

Despite Russia's continued advancement, Bolton characterized their performance as coming at an "extraordinary cost in human and materiel terms." He asserted that the conflict runs contrary to Russia's own best interests, driven by a belief that a war of attrition will ultimately grind Ukraine down. Yet, he also speculated that Putin might accept a deal short of complete Ukrainian capitulation, especially if Trump is pushed too far. Putin, Bolton suggested, has come close to overplaying his hand several times, realizing that Trump, despite his perceived malleability, does not wish to be publicly humiliated. Therefore, if sufficient concessions are offered, Putin might seize the opportunity of a ceasefire to consolidate gains.

Bolton offered a chilling explanation for Trump's perceived closeness to Putin, describing Trump's admiration for "strong figures" like Putin, Xi Jinping, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and Kim Jong Un. He echoed the historical notion of Trump as a "useful idiot," a term Lenin reputedly used for those unwittingly serving a hostile agenda. Bolton suggested that Putin, employing his KGB training, skillfully identifies and exploits Trump's weaknesses, leading to a consistent pattern where Trump gravitates toward Russian positions after interactions with the Russian leader.

Regarding the speculation that Putin possesses compromising material on Trump, Bolton stated he has seen no concrete evidence, dismissing it as largely conjecture. Instead, he pointed to what he considers ample evidence that Trump lacks a coherent strategic theory, philosophy, or consistent policy framework, making him highly susceptible to manipulation. For Trump, Bolton argued, it's always "one deal after another," often with Russia giving up nothing of substance.

Europe as Adversary: A Backward Strategy

Bolton also took aim at a recently published White House security strategy document that controversially portrayed Europe as America’s true adversary, rather than Russia or China. He expressed doubt that Trump had even read the document, suggesting its content reflects a different ideological bent, perhaps more aligned with a potential JD Vance administration. Bolton dismissed its strategic coherence, despite his own long-standing criticisms of the European Union, emphasizing that Europe remains allied to the United States. He found the document's rhetoric about "civilizational erasure" in Europe and the implied U.S. interest in installing sympathetic governments to be largely empty, predicting that Europeans would largely "grit their teeth" and weather such rhetoric.

Beyond 'Peak Trump': The Future of the GOP and U.S. Alliances

Bolton's pronouncement that "we have passed peak Trump" and are now on a "downward slope" signals a significant shift. He noted growing anxiety among Republicans in Congress regarding the midterm elections in November 2026, observing a fragmentation within the MAGA movement and instances of revolt within the party, such as the Indiana Republican Party's refusal to redistrict. This, he argued, reflects a natural phenomenon in a president's second term, where they become a "lame duck," diminishing their influence.

He urged against premature conclusions that could be difficult to reverse, particularly concerning Ukraine. Bolton highlighted the strong bipartisan support for Ukraine in Congress and the deep concern surrounding negotiations. While acknowledging the three years remaining in the current presidential term, he warned that declaring the situation hopeless would effectively hand Russia and China a victory long sought by the Soviet Union: the fracturing of the North Atlantic alliance. He stressed that the battlefield situation is not hopeless, and Russia's costly advances underscore the need to mitigate damage rather than concede defeat.

Bolton suggested that Zelenskyy's strategy of engaging Trump in negotiations is sensible, aiming to prolong discussions and potentially attribute failure to Putin. He also underscored the need to strengthen Ukraine militarily, criticizing both the Biden administration and European NATO members for their hesitancy in providing necessary support due to an exaggerated fear of a wider war. He maintained that unprovoked aggression in Europe cannot be accepted, regardless of past mistakes.

The former adviser also addressed the critical question of repairing trust between Europe and the U.S. He warned that if Europe succumbs to a sense of hopelessness, it could become a self-fulfilling prophecy, making the split irreparable. The most detrimental action, he cautioned, would be to provide Trump with an excuse to withdraw from NATO, which would precipitate a profound crisis for global security.

Looking ahead, Bolton dismissed the likelihood of a sitting vice president like JD Vance becoming president, citing historical precedent. He characterized Trump's voter base as a "cult of personality," drawn to Trump's perceived fight for them, which also makes him dangerous. He drew parallels to George Orwell's observations, noting Trump's ability to contradict himself while retaining supporter loyalty, a unique phenomenon in American politics.

Regarding Trump's unconventional style, Bolton was skeptical of its long-term benefits, particularly the idea that it forces Europe to take defense more seriously. He asserted that recreating NATO without the U.S. or relying solely on the European Union would be futile, a reality well understood by Russia and China, who would actively encourage any Trump efforts to dismantle American alliances.

For foreign leaders navigating relations with Trump, Bolton cited the approach of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzō Abe as the most effective: constant communication, personal visits, and withholding requests until absolutely necessary. He also commended Boris Johnson, Mark Rutte (as NATO Secretary General), and Finnish President Alexander Stubb for their adept handling of Trump, contrasting this with German politician Friedrich Merz's statements about European independence, which Bolton believes only embolden Trump's isolationist tendencies.

Bolton concluded by reiterating his experience with a "retribution presidency," referencing the cancellation of his Secret Service protection on Inauguration Day and the ongoing investigation against him. He acknowledged that while Democrats have also engaged in "lawfare," Trump's extreme application of it is provoking a significant backlash, creating a volatile political environment for all involved.

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